Zoning of the Territory of the Saratov Region by the Intensity of Epidemic Manifestations of HFRS using GIS Analysis

Abstract

The aim of the study was to zone the territory of the Saratov Region using indicators that influence the intensity of epidemic manifestations of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and to assess the risk of infection of people for a differentiated approach to the organization of anti-epidemic measures in natural foci.Materials and methods. When calculating the intensity of epidemic manifestations of HFRS in the administrative-territorial units (ATUs) of the Region, the indicators that have the greatest impact on the risk of infection were selected: the intensive rate of morbidity among population, the rate of infection of carriers with the HFRS virus, the number of recreational facilities, and the forest cover rate. The paper presents personalized data of HFRS patients, the results of epizootiological monitoring, information about recreational facilities and the forest fund of the Saratov Region. All the data considered cover the period of 2010–2022 for each of the administrative districts of the Region and the city of Saratov. To calculate the intensity of epidemic manifestations, the dimension method and the decimal logarithm were used.Results and discussion. As a result of calculations, 8 ATU of the Regions have been classed as the territories with the highest intensity of epidemic manifestations and the risk of HFRS infection, with high intensity – 9, with medium – 10 and low – 12. Epidemiological geo-information analysis made it possible to establish that the territories with the highest intensity of epidemic manifestations of HFRS occupy 15.8 % of the area of the region, high – 23.8 %, medium – 28.5 %, low – 31.9 %. Based on the findings of the study, 16 districts of the Region and the city of Saratov were identified as the most dangerous in terms of HFRS infection. Namely these territories that primarily require targeted epizootiological monitoring for early and effective management of preventive activities.