Cholera: Monitoring of Epidemiological Situation around the World and in Russia (2010–2019). Forecast for 2020

Abstract

Objective of the study was to monitor the spread of cholera in the world, in the CIS countries and in Russia with an assessment of risks and emergencies that contribute to the activation of the epidemic process. Despite the downward trend in the global incidence rate of cholera during the period between 2010 and 2019, epidemics and major outbreaks occurred in 96 countries. WHO has reported 2013 imported cases of cholera to countries in Asia, the Americas, including the Caribbean, Europe, and Australia with Oceania; cholera-endemic administrative territories are identified in 24 countries. According to WHO, cholera burden reduction in Asia and Africa is associated with large-scale vaccination. During epidemiological surveillance of cholera, 705 strains of V. cholerae O1 and O139 serogroups were isolated from surface reservoirs in 26 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including 10 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA+tcpA+, 35 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA+, 655 strains of V. cholerae O1 ctxA–tcpA– , and five strains of V. cholerae O139 ctxA–tcpA–. Identification of strains with unique, previously unknown INDEL genotypes testifies to their imported nature. The forecast for cholera in the world for 2020, given the proven high degree of epidemic process activation at the expense of social and environmental risks caused by emergencies of different origin, the presence of endemic foci, infection import and other risk factors is unfavorable. For Russia, the forecast for cholera will be determined by the presence of external risks created by the ongoing 7-th pandemic, possible importation of infection to constituent entities of the Russian Federation that differ by the types of epidemic manifestations.