POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE IN RUSSIA IN THE 21ST CENTURY BASED ON THE INM-CM5-0 CLIMATE MODEL

Abstract

Possible climate changes in Russia during the 21st century are considered based on the INM-CM5-0 climate model. According to the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the warming by 5-8°C in winter and by 3-4.5°C in summer are expected in Russia at the end of the 21st century. Minimum annual temperatures will rise faster than winter mean ones. Maximum annual temperatures will rise faster that summer mean ones. An increase in precipitation will occur across Russia in winter, while its decrease is expected in southern and central European Russia and in the south of Western Siberia in summer. The contribution of light precipitation will decrease, while the contribution of heavy and very heavy precipitation will increase. An increase in annual mean river runoff and a decrease in upper soil moisture in summer are expected nearly everywhere in Russia.