ATMOSPHERIC SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENTS IN RUSSIA: CHANGES OBSERVED FROM DIFFERENT DATA

Abstract

Changes in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric severe convective events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, hailstorm, squall, and tornado, in the Russian regions during the warm season are analyzed using different independent sources of information. Based on observations at Russian weather stations in 1966-2020, the frequency of thunderstorm, hailstorm, and strong wind, the contribution of extreme showers to total precipitation, and the cumulonimbus cloud fraction are estimated. Based on satellite data, the frequency and intensity of tornado and squall events that caused windthrows for 1986-2021 and the height of the top of deep convective clouds for 2002-2021 are also evaluated. The ERA5 reanalysis data are used to analyze the frequency of conditions favorable for the development of moderate and intense severe convective events in 1979-2020. The results indicate a general intensification of severe convective events in most Russian regions, except for a number of regions in the south of the European part of Russia. The frequency of moderate hazards has a decreasing trend, and the frequency of the most intense severe hazards has an increasing trend. It is reasonable to take the results into account when developing plans for the adaptation of Russian regions and industries to climate change.