WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL IN THE ARCTIC AND SUBARCTIC REGIONS AND ITS PROJECTED CHANGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY ACCORDING TO REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS

Abstract

Quantitative estimates of changes in wind energy resources in the Arctic were obtained using the RCA4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for 2006-2099. The wind power density proportional to cubic wind speed was analyzed. The procedure for the model near-surface wind speed bias correction using ERA5 data as a reference with subsequent extrapolation of wind speed to the turbine height was applied to estimate the wind power density (WPD). According to the RCA4 simulations for the 21st century under both anthropogenic forcing scenarios, a noticeable increase in the WPD was noted, in particular, over the Barents, Kara, and Chukchi seas in winter. In summer, a general increase in the WPD is manifested over the Arctic Ocean. The changes are more significant under the RCP8.5 scenario with high anthropogenic forcing for the 21st century. According to model projections, an increase in the interdaily WPD variations does not generally lead to the deviations of wind speed to the values at which the operation of wind generators is unfeasible.