Secular trends in the incidence, prevalence, and survival of primary liver cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000-2021: a population-based cohort study

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackgroundPrimary liver cancer (PLC) remains a global health challenge. Understanding trends in the disease burden and survival is crucial to inform decisions regarding screening, prevention and treatment.MethodsPopulation-based cohort study using UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD (2000 to 2021), replicated in CPRD Aurum. PLC incidence rates (IR), period prevalence (PP) and survival at one, five and ten years over the study period were calculated, and stratified by age, sex and diagnosis year.ResultsThe crude IR of PLC was 4.56 (95%CI 4.42-4.70) per 100,000 person-years between 2000 and 2021, with an increase over time across age and sex strata. Sex-specific IR for males was higher than females, 6.60 (95%CI 6.36-6.85) vs. 2.58 (95%CI 2.44-2.74) per 100,000 person-years. Crude PP showed a 7-fold increase over the study period, with PP 0.02% (95%CI 0.019%-0.022%) in 2021, and a 2.8-fold higher PP in males. Survival at one, five and ten years after diagnosis was 41.7%, 13.2% and 7.1%, respectively, for both sexes. One-year survival increased only in men, from 33.2% in 2005-2009 to 49.3% in 2015-2019.ConclusionOver the past two decades, there has been a significant increase in the number of patients diagnosed with PLC. Despite a slight improvement in median and one-year survival in men, prognosis remains poor. To improve the survival of PLC patients, it is necessary to understand the epidemiological changes and address the preventable risk factors associated with liver disease and promote early detection and access to care.LAY SUMMARYThis population-based cohort study shows that the incidence and prevalence of primary liver cancer in the UK has increased in the last 20 years across both sexes and age groups, with a 7-fold increase in crude period prevalence over the study period. One-year survival has improved only in males over the study period and, regrettably, no increases in long-term survival were observed. Our findings are a call for awareness to stimulate further research and public health actions on liver cancer.