Modelling the effectiveness of targeting Rift Valley fever virus vaccination using imperfect network information

Abstract

ABSTRACTLivestock movements contribute to the spread of several infectious diseases. Data on livestock movements can therefore be harnessed to guide policy on targeted interventions for controlling infectious livestock diseases, including Rift Valley fever (RVF) — a vaccine-preventable arboviral fever. While detailed livestock movement data are available in many countries, such data are generally lacking in others, including many in East Africa, where multiple RVF outbreaks have been reported in recent years. Available movement data are imperfect, and the impact of imperfect movement data on targeted vaccination is not fully understood. Here, we used a network simulation model to describe the spread of RVF within and between 398 wards in northern Tanzania connected by cattle movements, on which we evaluated the impact of targeting vaccination using imperfect movement data. We show that pre-emptive vaccination guided by only market movement permit data could prevent large outbreaks. Targeted control (either by the risk of RVF introduction or onward transmission) at any level of imperfect movement information is preferred over random vaccination, and any improvement in information reliability is advantageous to their effectiveness. Our modelling approach demonstrates how targeted interventions can be carefully applied to inform animal and public health policies on disease control planning in settings where detailed data on livestock movements are unavailable or imperfect due to a lack of data-gathering resources.