Using epidemiological principles to explain fungicide resistance management strategies: why do mixtures outperform alternations?

Abstract

ABSTRACTWhether fungicide resistance management is optimised by spraying chemicals with different modes of action as a mixture (i.e. simultaneously) or in alternation (i.e. sequentially) has been studied by experimenters and modellers for decades, largely inconclusively.We use previously-parameterised and validated mathematical models of wheat septoria leaf blotch and grapevine powdery mildew to test which strategy provides better resistance management, using the total yield before fungicide-resistance causes disease control to become economically-ineffective (“lifetime yield”) to measure effectiveness.Lifetime yield is optimised by spraying as much low-risk fungicide as is permitted, combined with slightly more high-risk fungicide than needed for acceptable initial disease control, applying these fungicides as a mixture. This is invariant to model parameterisation and structure, as well as the pathosystem in question. However if comparison focuses on other metrics, for example lifetime yield at full label dose, either mixtures or alternation can be optimal.Our work shows how epidemiological principles can explain the evolution of fungicide resistance, and highlights a theoretical framework to address the question of whether mixtures or alternation provide better resistance management. Our work also demonstrates that precisely how spray strategies are compared must be given extremely careful consideration.