Deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccination in select Latin American and Caribbean Countries: a modelling study

Abstract

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in LAC during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021 - May 2022).MethodsPublicly available data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates were used to estimate the total number of deaths averted via vaccination in LAC. Using estimates for number of deaths, number of vaccinated, and vaccine effectiveness, a counterfactual estimated number of deaths observed without vaccination was calculated. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were obtained from published studies. The analysis focused on 17 countries in LAC and considered adults aged 18 years and above.FindingsAfter accounting for underreporting, the analysis estimated that over 1.49 million deaths were caused by COVID-19 in the selected countries during the study period. Without vaccination, the model estimated that between 2.10 and 4.11 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred. Consequently, vaccination efforts resulted in approximately 610,000 to 2.61 million deaths averted.InterpretationThis study represents the first large-scale, multi-center estimate of population-level vaccine impact on COVID-19 mortality in LAC. The findings underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 deaths. These results provide crucial support for vaccination programs aimed at combating epidemic infectious diseases in the region and future pandemics.FundingThis study was funded by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO).