Comparative Application of the Fluctuation Test to the data of Morbidity by COVID-19 in United States of America, United Kingdom, Taiwan and China 2020-2023

Abstract

AbstractIn this work the Luria and Delbruck Fluctuation Test was comparatively applied to the data of Morbidity by COVID-19 in the United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), Taiwan and China from 2020 to 2023. Three types of data were used:es.statista.com,datosmacro.expansion.comand larepublica.co without modification, but trying to avoid and justify the anomalies and inconsistencies observed. The methods originally used to establish the interactions of two populations were evaluated: the viral population with that of its host and the drift of both organisms. Only the interactive fluctuations of the weekly Variance of daily increase of Cases (Morbidity) were studied. The results showed that the Fluctuation Test is applicable to the selected data from USA, UK, Taiwan and China and other data from several countries used as controls. The study was separated into two approaches: First, comparison of the total or partial logarithmic profile of fluctuations of Variance of Cases (Morbidity) of USA, UK, Taiwan and China. Second, comparison of the values of the first fluctuation of Variance of Cases (Morbidity) in the boreal winter of 2020 for USA, UK, Taiwan, China and several countries used as controls. The results obtained for Morbidity demonstrate that USA and UK present a similar bimodal profile. China shows an inverted profile and Taiwan shows an intermediate profile between both tendencies. However, it was possible to detect some anomalies and uncertainties that were possibly derived from inconsistencies in the original data. Only USA shows a value of the first fluctuation comparable to the order of magnitude of the value of the first fluctuation of the Variance of Cases of China, in the northern winter of 2020. In the First Approach USA, UK and China had two important fluctuations: the first in the northern winter of 2020 before week 16 and the second at the beginning of northern winter of 2022, more than 100 weeks later. Taiwan showed only the latter. This latest fluctuation coincides with two events: the possible achievement of herd immunity and the emergence of Omicron variant. In this work we have evaluated whether this coincidence is casual or causal. The results obtained in the Second Approach aim to confirm the hypothesis of the animal origin of the first variant of SARS CoV-2.