Impact of exposure frequency on disease burden of the common cold - a mathematical modeling perspective

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe common cold is a frequent disease in humans and can be caused by a multitude of different viruses. Despite its typically mild nature, the high prevalence of the common cold causes significant human suffering and economic costs. Oftentimes, strategies to reduce contacts are used in order to prevent infection. To better understand the dynamics of this ubiquitous ailment, we develop two novel mathematical models: the common cold ordinary differential equation (CC-ODE) model at the population level, and the common cold individual-based (CC-IB) model at the individual level. Our study aims to investigate whether the frequency of population / individual exposure to an exemplary common cold pathogen influences the average disease burden associated with this virus.On the one hand, the CC-ODE model captures the dynamics of the common cold within a population, considering factors such as infectivity and contact rates, as well as development of specific immunity in the population. On the other hand, the CC-IB model provides a granular perspective by simulating individual-level interactions and infection dynamics, incorporating heterogeneity in contact rates.By employing these models, we explore the impact of exposure frequencies upon the net disease burden of common cold infections in theoretical settings. In both modeling approaches, we show that under specific parameter configurations (i.e., characteristics of the virus and the population), increased exposure can result in a lower average disease burden. While increasing contact rates may be ethically justifiable for low-mortality common cold pathogens, we explicitly do not advocate for such measures in severe illnesses. The mathematical approaches we introduce are simple yet powerful and can be taken as a starting point for the investigation of specific common cold pathogens and scenarios.