The wildlife-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India

Abstract

AbstractAnthrax is a potentially life-threatening bacterial disease that can circulate in wild and domestic animals and subsequently spillover to human contacts with devastating consequences for human and animal health, as well as livestock economies and ecosystem conservation. India has a high annual occurrence of anthrax in some regions, but a country-wide delineation of risk has not yet been undertaken. The current study modeled the geographic suitability of anthrax across India and its associated environmental features using a biogeographical application of machine learning. Both biotic and abiotic features contributed to risk across multiple scales of influence and the wildlife-livestock interface, using elephants as a wildlife sentinel species, was the dominant feature in delineating anthrax suitability. In addition, water-soil balance, soil chemistry, and historical forest loss were also influential. These findings suggest that the wildlife-livestock interface plays an important role in the cycling of anthrax in India. Prevention efforts targeted toward this interface, particularly within anthropogenic ecotones, may yield successes in reducing ongoing transmission between animal hosts and subsequent zoonotic transmission to humans.