Using Explainable-AI to Find Geospatial Environmental and Sociodemographic Predictors of Suicide Attempts

Abstract

AbstractDespite a global decrease in suicide rates in recent years, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts in order to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we use an explainable-artificial intelligence method, iterative Random Forest, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. Our predictive model incorporates multiple environmental variables (e.g., elevation, light wavelength absorbance, temperature, humidity, etc) at ZIP code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic variables from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people in order to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.