Reopen or redistribute? - Modeling years of life lost due to Covid-19, socioeconomic status, and non-pharmaceutical interventions

Abstract

ABSTRACTResearch in the current pandemic has put a sharp focus on the health burden of Covid-19, thereby largely neglecting the cost to life from the socioeconomic consequences of its containment. The paper develops a model for assessing their proportionality. It compares the years of life lost (YLL) due to Covid-19 and the socioeconomic consequences of its containment. The model reconciles the normative life table approach with de facto socioeconomic realities by correcting YLL estimates for socioeconomic differences in life expectancy. It thereby aims to improve on the attribution of YLL due to immediate and fundamental sources of inequalities in life expectancy. The application of the approach to the pandemic suggests that the socioeconomic consequences of containment measures potentially come with a much higher life tag than the disease itself and therefore need urgent attention, especially in poorer and more unequal societies. Avoiding 3 million additional cases of extreme poverty may come with a similar life tag as protecting 1 million people from dying from Covid-19.