Analyzing the effect of relaxing restriction on the COVID-19 outbreak for some US states

Abstract

AbstractThe ongoing pandemic disease COVID-19 has caused worldwide social and financial disruption. As many countries are engaged in designing vaccines, the harmful second and third waves of COVID-19 have already appeared in many countries. To investigate changes in transmission rates and the effect of social distancing in the USA, we formulate a system of ordinary differential equations using data of confirmed cases and deaths in these states: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri in the USA to be able to investigate changes in transmission rates of the outbreak and effect of social distancing. Our models and the corresponding parameter estimations show social distancing reduces the transmission by 60% to 90%, and thus obeying the movement restriction rules plays a crucial rule to reduce the magnitudes of the outbreak waves. Our analysis shows the current management restrictions do not sufficiently slow the disease propagation.