To buffer or to be labile? A framework to disentangle demographic patterns and evolutionary processes

Abstract

AbstractUntil recently, natural selection was assumed to reduce temporal fluctuation in vital rates due to its negative effects on population dynamics – the so-called Demographic Buffering Hypothesis (DBH). After several failures to support the DBH in the two decades since it was first posited, an alternative hypothesis was suggested; the Demographic Lability Hypothesis (DLH), where population vital rates should track rather than buffer the environmental conditions. Despite the huge contribution of both hypotheses to comprehend the demographic strategies to cope the environmental stochasticity, it remains unclear if they represent two competing patterns or the extreme ends of a continuum encompassing all demographic strategies. To solve this historical debate, we unify several methods with an integrative theoretical approach where: i) using the sum of stochastic elasticity with respect to mean and variance – a first-order derivative approach – we rank species on a Buffering-Lability (DB-DL) continuum and ii) using the second-order derivative, we examine how vital rates are shaped by natural selection. Our framework, applied to 40 populations of 34 mammals, successfully placed the species on the DB-DL continuum. We could also link the species' position on the DB-DL continuum to their generation time and time to recovery. Moreover, the second-order derivative unveiled that vital rates with lower temporal variation are not necessarily under a strong pressure of stabilizing selection, as predicted by DBH and DLH. Our framework provides an important step towards unifying the different perspectives of DBH and DLH with key evolutionary concepts.