Modelling the impact of extending dose intervals for COVID-19 vaccines in Canada

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundDual dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccines demonstrate high efficacy and will be critical in public health efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic and its health consequences; however, many jurisdictions face very constrained vaccine supply. We examined the impacts of extending the interval between two doses of mRNA vaccines in Canada in order to inform deliberations of Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization.MethodsWe developed an age-stratified, deterministic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease to reproduce the epidemiologic features of the epidemic in Canada. Simulated vaccination comprised mRNA vaccines with explicit examination of effectiveness against disease (67% [first dose], 94% [second dose]), hospitalization (80% [first dose], 96% [second dose]), and death (85% [first dose], 96% [second dose]) in adults aged 20 years and older. Effectiveness against infection was assumed to be 90% relative to the effectiveness against disease. We used a 6-week mRNA dose interval as our base case (consistent with early program rollout across Canadian and international jurisdictions) and compared extended intervals of 12 weeks, 16 weeks, and 24 weeks. We began vaccinations on January 1, 2021 and simulated a third wave beginning on April 1, 2021.ResultsExtending mRNA dose intervals were projected to result in 12.1-18.9% fewer symptomatic cases, 9.5-13.5% fewer hospitalizations, and 7.5-9.7% fewer deaths in the population over a 12-month time horizon. The largest reductions in hospitalizations and deaths were observed in the longest interval of 24 weeks, though benefits were diminishing as intervals extended. Benefits of extended intervals stemmed largely from the ability to accelerate coverage in individuals aged 20-74 years as older individuals were already prioritized for early vaccination. Conditions under which mRNA dose extensions led to worse outcomes included: first-dose effectiveness < 65% against death; or protection following first dose waning to 0% by month three before the scheduled 2nd dose at 24-weeks. Probabilistic simulations from a range of likely vaccine effectiveness values did not result in worse outcomes with extended intervals.ConclusionUnder real-world effectiveness conditions, our results support a strategy of extending mRNA dose intervals across all age groups to minimize symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, and deaths while vaccine supply is constrained.