The impact of increasing the minimum legal drinking age to 20 years in Lithuania on all-cause mortality – an interrupted time-series analysis

Abstract

AbstractAimsTo determine the effect of an alcohol policy change, which increased the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) from 18 years of age to 20 years of age on all-cause mortality rates in young adults in Lithuania.MethodsAn interrupted time series analysis was conducted on a dataset from 2001 to 2019 (n = 228 months). The model tested the effects of the MLDA on all-cause mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 individuals) in 3 age categories (15-17 years old, 18-19 years old, 20-22 years old). Additional models that included GDP as a covariate and taxation policy were tested as well.ResultsThere was a significant effect of the MLDA on all-cause mortality rates in those 18-19 years old, when modelled alone. Additional analyses controlling for the mortality rate of other age groups showed similar findings. Inclusion of confounding factors (policies on alcohol taxation, GDP) eliminated the effects of MLDA.ConclusionsAlthough there was a notable decline in all-cause mortality rates among young adults in Lithuania, a direct causal impact of MLDA on all-cause mortality rates in young adults was not definitively found.Short SummaryWe investigated the effect of an increase in minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) on all-cause mortality in young adults (aged 18-19). MLDA had a negative effect on all-cause mortality (even when controlling for mortality rates in other age groups), however when confounding factors were included, these effects were attenuated.