Predicting the end of Covid-19 infection for various countries using a stochastic agent-based model taking into account vaccination rates and the new mutant

Abstract

AbstractUsing a stochastic, agent-based model, the course of infection since the first occurrence of a Covid-19 infection is simulated for various countries, taking into account the new, more infectious mutant and the vaccinations. The simulation shows that the course of infection for the United Kingdom (UK) and Israel is surprisingly good. For the other countries, an end date for the infection can be predicted based on the course of the simulation. For Germany, the course is calculated in a second scenario, assuming a higher vaccination rate.