COVID-19 pandemic: Analyzing of spreading behavior, the impact of restrictions and prevention measures in Germany and Japan

Abstract

In December 2019, the world was confronted with the outbreak of the respiratory disease COVID-19. The COVID-19 epidemic evolved at the beginning of 2020 into a pandemic, which continues to this day. The incredible speed of the spread and the consequences of the infection had a worldwide impact on societies and health systems. Governments enforced many measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic: Restrictions (e.g. lockdown), medical care (e.g. intensive care) and medical prevention (e.g. hygiene concept). This leads to a different spreading behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic, depending on measures. Furthermore, the spreading behavior is influenced by culture and geographical impacts. The spreading behavior of COVID-19 related to short time intervals can be described by Weibull distribution models, common in reliability engineering, in a sound way. The interpretation of the model parameters allows the assessment of the COVID-19 spreading characteristics. This paper shows results of a research study of the COVID-19 spreading behavior depending on different pandemic time phases within Germany and Japan. Both countries are industrial nations, but have many differences with respect to historical development, culture and geographical conditions. Consequently, the chosen government measures have different impacts on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research study contains the analyses of different pandemic time intervals in Germany and Japan: The breakout phase in spring 2020 and subsequently following waves until winter season 2020/2021.