Fractional Dosing of Yellow Fever Vaccine to Extend Supply: A Modeling Study

Author:

Wu Joseph T.,Peak Corey M.,Leung Gabriel M.,Lipsitch MarcORCID

Abstract

BackgroundThe ongoing yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Angola strains the global vaccine supply, prompting WHO to adopt dose sparing for its vaccination campaign in Kinshasa in July-August 2016. Although a 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine is similar to standard-dose vaccine in safety and immunogenicity, efficacy is untested. There is an urgent need to ensure the robustness of fractional-dose vaccination by elucidating the conditions under which dose fractionation would reduce transmission.MethodsWe estimate the effective reproductive number for YF in Angola using disease natural history and case report data. With simple mathematical models of YF transmission, we calculate the infection attack rate (IAR, the proportion of population infected over the course of an epidemic) under varying levels of transmissibility and five-fold fractional-dose vaccine efficacy for two vaccination scenarios: (i) random vaccination in a hypothetical population that is completely susceptible; (ii) the Kinshasa vaccination campaign in July-August 2016 with different age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines.FindingsWe estimate the effective reproductive number early in the Angola outbreak was between 5·2 and 7·1. If vaccine action is all-or-nothing (i.e. a proportion VE of vaccinees receives complete and the remainder receive no protection), n-fold fractionation can dramatically reduce IAR as long as efficacy VE exceeds 1/n. This benefit threshold becomes more stringent if vaccine action is leaky (i.e. the susceptibility of each vaccinee is reduced by a factor that is equal to the vaccine efficacy VE). The age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines chosen by the WHO for the Kinshasa vaccination campaign (namely, 2 years) provides the largest reduction in IAR if the efficacy of five-fold fractional-dose vaccines exceeds 20%.InterpretationDose fractionation is a very effective strategy for reducing infection attack rate that would be robust with a large margin for error in case fractional-dose VE is lower than expected.FundingNIH-MIDAS, HMRF-Hong Kong

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Reference29 articles.

1. World Health Organization. Situation Report: Yellow Fever. Geneva, Switzerland, 2016 http://www.who.int/emergencies/yellow-fever/situation-reports/15-july-2016/en/.

2. Why is the yellow fever outbreak in Angola a ‘threat to the entire world’?

3. Yellow fever vaccine supply: a possible solution

4. Barrett AD . Yellow Fever in Angola and Beyond — The Problem of Vaccine Supply and Demand. N Engl J Med 2016; published online June 8. http://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMp1606997.

5. Optimizing the dose of pre-pandemic influenza vaccines to reduce the infection attack rate;PLoS Med,2007

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. (Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine;Unifying Themes in Complex Systems IX;2018

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3