Application of a generalized SEIR model for covid-19 in Algeria

Abstract

AbstractThe novel coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan is continuing to impress the world by its fast spread and the number of affected persons attracting an unprecedented attention. In this article, we used the classical SEIR model and a generalized SEIR model called SEIRDP model inspired in a model previously used during the outbreak in China to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in Algeria for a future period of 100 days using official reported data from early April to early August, 2020. Initial evaluation showed that thetwo models had a net correspondence with the reported data during this period for cumulative infected cases but the number of cumulative deaths was underestimated with the classical SEIR model. Model prediction with the SEIRDP concluded that the number of cumulative infected cases will increase in the next days reaching a number of about 60 k in middle November with a median of about 300 daily cases. Also, the number of estimated deaths will be around 2k. These results suggest that the COVID-19 is ongoing to infect more persons which may push national authorities to carefully act in the probable leaving of containment.