Temporal and genomic analysis of additive genetic variance in breeding programmes

Abstract

AbstractThis study demonstrates a framework for temporal and genomic analysis of additive genetic variance in a breeding programme. Traditionally we used specific experimental designs to estimate genetic variance for a specific group of individuals and a general pedigree-based model to estimate genetic variance for pedigree founders. However, with the pedigree-based model we can also analyse temporal changes in genetic variance by summarising sampled realisations of genetic values from a fitted model. Here we extend this analysis to a marker-based model and build a framework for temporal and genomic analyses of genetic variance. The framework involves three steps: (i) fitting a marker-based model to data, (ii) sampling realisations of marker effects from the fitted model and for each sample calculating realisations of genetic values, and (iii) calculating variance of the sampled genetic values by time and genome partitions. Genome partitions enable estimation of contributions from chromosomes and chromosome pairs and genic and linkage-disequilibrium variances. We demonstrate the framework by analysing data from a simulated breeding programme involving a complex trait with additive gene action. We use the full Bayesian and empirical Bayesian approaches to account for the uncertainty due to model fitting. We also evaluate the use of principal component approximation. Results show good concordance between the simulated and estimated variances for temporal and genomic analyses and give insight into genetic processes. For example, we observe reduction of genic variance due to selection and drift and buildup of negative linkage-disequilibrium (the Bulmer effect) due to directional selection. In this study the popular empirical Bayesian approach estimated the variances well but it underestimated uncertainty of the estimates. The principal components approximation biases estimates, in particular for the genic variance. This study gives breeders a framework to analyse genetic variance and its components in different stages of a programme and over time.