Crop improvement can accelerate agriculture adaptation to societal demands and climate change

Abstract

AbstractA key question today is how to harmonize future crop improvement efforts for regenerative cropping systems that can mitigate further environmental degeneration and improve societal adaptation to climate change. Here we show that the US corn-belt based maize improvement system has been adapting to the changing climate. Analyses of the longest running field experiment (1990-2021) designed to quantify yield gains (37 hybrids sold from 1930 to 1990) demonstrate that rates of genetic gain were always positive and have increased over time (from 70 to 150 kg ha-1y-1in 1990 and 2021, respectively). Between 1930 and 2021 for the May through October period total rainfall for the U.S. corn belt increased 113 mm, and daily temperature amplitude decreased 1.3°C. At the same time, farmers modified their farming practices, helping modern hybrids to out-perform their older counterparts by a larger degree. In contrast to the conclusions reached by other observational studies, genetic gain estimates demonstrate that maize breeding and the production system are adapting to modern scenarios. Climate change is commonly linked to fears of food insecurity, but new cropping systems capable of providing food while regenerating resources such as water, the circularization of nutrients, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are possible.