A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations

Abstract

AbstractComparing COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies across nations is a key step in preparing for future pandemics. Conventional comparisons, which rank individual NPI effects, are limited by: 1) vastly different political, economic, and social conditions among nations, 2) NPIs typically being applied as packages of interventions, and 3) an exclusive focus on epidemiological outcomes of interventions. Here, we develop a coupled epidemiological-behavioural-macroeconomic model that allows us to transfer NPI strategies from a reference nation to a focal nation while preserving the packaged nature of NPIs, controlling for differences among nations, and quantifying epidemiological, behavioural and economic outcomes. As a demonstration, we take Germany as our focal nation during Spring 2020, and New Zealand and Switzerland as reference nations with contrasting NPI strategies. We show that, while New Zealand’s more aggressive strategy would have yielded modest epidemiological gains in Germany, it would have resulted in substantially higher economic costs while dramatically reducing social contacts. In contrast, Switzerland’s more lenient NPI strategy would have prolonged the first wave in Germany, but would have also have increased relative costs. Our results demonstrate that Germany’s intermediate strategy was effective in quelling the first wave while mitigating both economic and social costs.