Assessment of Vaccination and Underreporting on COVID-19 Infections in Turkey Based On Effective Reproduction Number

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, we introduce a SEIR type COVID-19 model where the infected class is further divided into subclasses with individuals in intensive care (ICUs) and ventilation units. The model is validated with the symptomatic COVID-19 cases, deaths, and the number of patients in ICUs and ventilation units as reported by Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Health for the period March 11, 2020 through May 30, 2020 when the nationwide lockdown is in order. COVID-19 interventions in Turkey are incorporated into the model to detect the future trend of the outbreak accurately. We tested the effect of underreporting and we found that the peaks of the disease differ significantly depending on the rate of underreporting, however, the timing of the peaks remains constant.The lockdown is lifted on June 1, and the model is modified to include a time dependent transmission rate which is linked to the effective reproduction number ℛt through basic reproduction number ℛ0. The modified model captures the changing dynamics and peaks of the outbreak successfully. With the onset of vaccination on 13 January 2021, we augment the model with the vaccination class to investigate the impact of vaccination rate and efficacy. We observe that vaccination rate is a more critical parameter than the vaccine efficacy to eliminate the disease successfully.