Association between SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Viral Load, and Age in Households

Abstract

AbstractAimThe objective of this nationwide study was to investigate the association between SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, viral load, and age of primary cases in Danish households.BackgroundSpread in households represents a major mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In order to take proper action against the spread of the disease, it is important to have a better understanding of transmission in the household domain—including the role of viral load of primary cases.MethodsThe study was designed as an observational cohort study, using detailed administrative register data. We included the full population of Denmark and all SARS-CoV-2 tests (August 25, 2020 to February 10, 2021) to estimate transmissibility in house-holds comprising 2-6 people. RT-PCR Cycle threshold (Ct) values were used as a proxy for viral load.ResultsWe identified 63,657 primary cases and 139,882 household members of which 21% tested positive by RT-PCR within a 1-14 day period after the primary case. There was an approximately linear association between Ct value of the sample and transmissibility, implying that cases with samples having a higher viral load were more transmissible than cases with samples having a lower viral load. However, even for primary cases with relatively high sample Ct values, the transmissibility was not negligible, e.g., for primary cases with a sample Ct value of 38, we found that 13% of the primary cases had at least one secondary household case. Moreover, 34% of all secondary cases were found in households with primary cases having sample Ct values >30. An increasing transmissibility with age of the primary cases for adults (≥20 years) and a decreasing transmissibility with age for children (<20 years) were found.ConclusionsAlthough primary cases with sample high viral loads (low Ct values) were associated with higher SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, we found no obvious cut-off for sample Ct values to eliminate transmissibility and a substantial amount of household transmission occurred in households where the primary cases had high sample Ct values (low viral load), The study further showed that transmissibility increases with age. These results have important public health implications, as they suggest that contact tracing should prioritize cases according to Ct values and age, and underline the importance of quick identification and isolation of cases. Furthermore, the study highlights that households can serve as a transmission bridge by creating connections between otherwise separate domains.