Prognostic Factors for Mortality in Patients Infected with Hantavirus: A Systematic Review with GRADE Certainty Assessment

Abstract

AbstractIntroductionOne of the challenges in managing patients with hantavirus infection is accurately identifying individuals who are at risk of developing severe disease. Prompt identification of these patients can facilitate critical decisions, such as early referral to an intensive care unit. The identified prognostic factors could be incorporated into predictive models to enhance the management of hantavirus infection.ObjectiveTo identify and evaluate prognostic factors associated with mortality in hantavirus infection, providing a basis for a risk assessment model for hantavirus mortalityMethodsWe conducted a systematic review following the ‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses’ (PRISMA) guidelines. We conducted a comprehensive search in PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Embase from their inception to January 2024. Furthermore, we included studies evaluating individual prognostic factors or risk assessment models of hantavirus infections, with no restrictions on study design, publication status, or language. When feasible, we conducted meta-analyses for prognostic factors using the inverse variance-based method with random effect model. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach,ResultsWe included 30 studies with a total of 92,183 participants. We identified the following key prognostic factors which predicted and increased mortality and disease severity: over 15 years, female gender, elevated creatinine levels (>1.4 mg/dL), increased hematocrit (>42%), and presence of infiltrates on chest radiographs.DiscussionOur systematic review not only sheds light on the pivotal prognostic factors for hantavirus infection but also sets the stage for the development of comprehensive management strategies that are informed by robust empirical evidence. These strategies, underpinned by predictive modeling and regional customization, can significantly enhance outcomes for individuals at risk of severe hantavirus disease, aligning with global health objectives aimed at zoonotic disease control and prevention.PROSPERO Registration NumberCRD42021225823