Forecasting High-Risk Behavioral and Medical Events in Children with Autism Using Digital Behavioral Records

Abstract

AbstractIndividuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder may display interfering behaviors that limit their inclusion in educational and community settings, negatively impacting their quality of life. These behaviors may also signal potential medical conditions or indicate upcoming high-risk behaviors. This study explores behavior patterns that precede high-risk, challenging behaviors or seizures the following day. We analyzed an existing dataset of behavior and seizure data from 331 children with profound ASD over nine years. We developed a deep learning-based algorithm designed to predict the likelihood of aggression, elopement, and self-injurious behavior (SIB) as three high-risk behavioral events, as well as seizure episodes as a high-risk medical event occurring the next day. The proposed model attained accuracies of 78.4%, 80.68%, 85.43%, and 69.95% for predicting the next-day occurrence of aggression, SIB, elopement, and seizure episodes, respectively. The results were proven significant for more than 95% of the population for all high-risk event predictions using permutation-based statistical tests. Our findings emphasize the potential of leveraging historical behavior data for the early detection of high-risk behavioral and medical events, paving the way for behavioral interventions and improved support in both social and educational environments.