Required COVID-19 Vaccination Certification to Attend Certain U.S. Professional Football Games in Fall 2021: A Natural Experiment

Abstract

AbstractFour U.S. National Football League teams required vaccination certification against the SARS-CoV-2 virus of attendees at home games during the 2021 season. Using daily data on confirmed cases and vaccinations in counties surrounding these stadiums and stadiums that did not require certification, this study estimates the effects of the certification policy. Ordinary least squares regression was used to estimate the change in community spread of the virus after home games and away games relative to weeks that the teams did not play (bye weeks).Compared to counties in metropolitan areas near stadiums with no certification requirement, counties near stadiums that had a vaccination requirement had significantly less cases 14 days after home games. In the six weeks leading up to the beginning of the season, percent vaccinated increased in counties that were near stadiums requiring vaccination certification only if the prevalent preseason vaccination rate was relatively low. Required vaccination certification at venues for large gatherings appear to slow virus spread generally in nearby communities and increases vaccination percentages in areas with lower prevalent vaccination percentages.