Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

AbstractGlobal changes may direct species expansion away from their current range. When such an expansion occurs, and a species colonizes a new region, it is important to monitor the habitat used by the species and use the information for updated management strategies. Water deer is listed as Vulnerable species in IUCN Red List and restricted to east central China and the Korean Peninsula. Since 2017 water deer has expanded its range towards northeast China and the Russian Far East. Our research focuses on data collected in northeast China and the Russian Far East during 2017-2021, with the purpose of providing support for a better understanding of habitat use and provide conservation suggestions. We used MaxEnt to model species niche and distribution and predict habitat suitability for water deer and applied the circuitscape to determine possible dispersal routes for the species. There is good quality habitat for water deer in the boundary area of the Yalu and Tumen River estuaries between China, North Korea, and the Russian Far East, as well as the east and west regions of the Korean Peninsula. Elevation, distance to cropland and water sources, and presence of wetlands were the variables that positively contributed to modelling the suitable habitats. Two possible dispersal routes were determined using the circuit theory, one was across the area from North Korea to the downstream Tumen transboundary region, and the other was across North Korea to the boundary region in China and along the tiger national park in northern China. A series of protected areas in North Korea, China, and Russia may support the dispersal of water deer. The establishment of a Northeast Asia landscape conservation network would help establish monitoring and conservation planning at a broad scale, and this study provides an example for the need for such a network