New models of transmission of COVID-19 with time under the influence of meteorological determinants

Abstract

AbstractObjectivesThis work aimed at modeling the progressions of COVID-19 cases in time in relation to meteorological factors in large cities of Brazil, Italy, Spain, and USA, and finding the viability of SARS-CoV-2 virus in different weather conditions based on models.MethodsNew models constructed showing the relationship of the I′ (the number of infected individuals divided by the total population of a city) with the independent variables -time, temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity. The regression models fitting in the data were statistically validated by: 1) plot of observed and predicted response; 2) standardized residual plots showing the characteristics of errors; 3) adjusted value; 4) the p value for the parameters associated with the various independent variables; and 5) the predictive power of the model beyond data points.ResultsModels indicate that 1) the transmission of COVID-19 could be relatively high either for elevated temperatures with lower relative humidity or for lower temperatures with higher relative humidity conditions; 2) disease transmission is expected to be reduced more with higher wind velocity; 3) the rate of increase in the number of COVID-19 cases increases in one model with a constant rate and in the other two with varying rates in time. These transmission features seem to have connections with the structural components of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Under suitable meteorological conditions, the partial natural disappearance of COVID-19 pandemic could be possible.ConclusionNew models for I′ may be considered to understand the viability of the virus in the environment and future transmission of COVID-19.