Expected impacts of climate change on tree ferns distribution and diversity patterns in subtropical Atlantic Forest

Abstract

ABSTRACTTree ferns are common elements in the Atlantic Forest domain, sometimes reaching more than half of total dominance at forest sites. Just as most groups, climate change might impact the distribution and diversity of tree ferns. To investigate the extent of these impacts in the subtropical Atlantic Rainforest, we measured the changes in species distribution, α- and β-diversity between current climate and future climatic scenarios for 2050. Most tree ferns species tend to lose their distribution area. Hence, species richness tends to decrease in the future, especially in the Rainforest sites. In general, β-diversity tend to not change on the regional scale, but some sites can change its relative singularity in composition. Our results show that climate change can impact distribution and α-diversity of tree ferns, but with no trend to cause homogenization in the tree ferns of the study area. Protected Areas (PAs) in our study region manage to withhold more α-diversity than areas without PAs — the same applies to β-diversity. Our study offers a new light into the effects of climate change in tree ferns by integrating the evaluation of its impacts on distribution, α- and β-diversity in all study areas and inside PAs.