Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of global talaromycosis

Abstract

AbstractTalaromycosis, an invasive mycosis caused by Talaromyces marneffei (Tm), has rapidly increased in recent years, becoming an emerging pathogenic fungal disease. However, The driving factors and potential distribution of global talaromycosis is still unclear. Here, we developed maxent ecology model using environmental variables, Rhizomys distribution and HIV/AIDS epidemic to forecast ecological niche of talaromycosis worldwhile, as well as Identify the drivering factors. The constructed model had excellent performance with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.997 in training data and 0.991 in testing data. Our model revealed that Rhizomys distribution, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, HIV/AIDS epidemic and mean temperature of driest quarter were the top 5 important variables affecting talaromycosis distribution. In addition to traditional talaromycosis epidemic areas (South of the Yangtze River in China, Southeast Asian and North and Northeast India), our model also identified other potential epidemic regions, inculding parts of the North of the Yangtze River, Central America, West Coast of Africa, East Coast of South America, the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Our findings has redefined global talaromycosis, discovered hidden high-risk areas and prorvided insights about driving factors of talaromycosis distribution, which will help inform surveillance strategies and improve the effectiveness of public health interventions against Tm infections.Author SummaryOur study aims to explore the spatial ecology of talaromycosis worldwhile. The diseases burden of Talaromycosis, a neglected zoonotic disease, is continuously rising in recent years because of the sheer size of susceptible population in the setting of increased globalization, rising HIV prevalence, and emerging iatrogenic immunodeficiency conditions. Here, we used historic reported talaromycosis cases from 1964 to 2017, combined with environmental factors, Rhizomys distribution and HIV/AIDS epidemic to build an maxent ecology model to define the ecological niche of talaromycosis, then predicting the potential distribution of the disease. The ecological niche of talaromycosis is characterized by a concentrated distribution, which can be cognitively divided into two regions: traditional talaromycosis epidemic areas (South of the Yangtze River in China, Southeast Asian and North and Northeast India), while other potential epidemic regions were predicted in parts of the North of the Yangtze River, Central America, West Coast of Africa, East Coast of South America, the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Our model also identified 5 driving factors affecting talaromycosis distribution. These findings will help demonstrate the global distribution of talaromycosis, discover hidden high-risk areas, and improve the effectiveness of public health interventions against Tm infections.