Author:
Ogana Wandera,Juma Victor Ogesa,Bulimo Wallace D.
Abstract
AbstractThe first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kenya in March 2020 and soon after non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were established to control the spread of the disease. The NPIs consisted, and continue to consist, of mitigation measures followed by a period of relaxation of some of the measures. In this paper, we use a deterministic mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of the disease, during the first wave, and relate it to the intervention measures. In the process, we develop a new method for estimating the disease parameters. Our solutions yield a basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.76, which is consistent with other solutions. The results further show that the initial mitigation reduced disease transmission by 40% while the subsequent relaxation increased transmission by 25%. We also propose a mathematical model on how interventions of known magnitudes collectively affect disease transmission rates. The modelled positivity rate curve compares well with observations. If interventions of unknown magnitudes have occurred, and data is available on the positivity rate, we use the method of planar envelopes around a curve to deduce the modelled positivity rate and the magnitudes of the interventions. Our solutions deduce mitigation and relaxation effects of 42.5% and 26%, respectively; these percentages are close to values obtained by the solution of the SIRD system. Our methods so far apply to a single wave; there is a need to investigate the possibility of extending them to handle multiple waves.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference60 articles.
1. Worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Accessed on diverse dates from March 2020 to February 2021.
2. Africa CDC: Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. www.africacdc.org/covid-19/, August 2020.
3. The species severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019-nCOV and naming it SARS-CoV-2;Coronaviridae Study Group of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses;Nat. Microbiology,2020
4. The spike protein of SARS-CoV — a target for vaccine and therapeutic development
5. Nicole M. Bouvier and Peter Palese .The biology of influenza viruses, Vaccine, 2008 Sep 12; 26(Suppl 4); D49–D53.
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献