COVID-19 in Canada: Predictions for the future and control lessons from Asia

Abstract

AbstractCOVID-19 has spread with unequal efficiency in various parts of the world. In several European countries including Italy, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases has followed a consistent, exponential pattern of spread. However, some countries, notably Taiwan and Hong Kong, have achieved a different outcome and have managed to bring the COVID-19 outbreak in their countries rapidly under control, without entering the exponential pattern and with very few cases. They have used several different approaches to COVID-19 outbreak control, including the innovative use of smartphone technology and the widespread use of surgical face masks. We show through our models, that Canada has followed the same, consistent COVID-19 exponential growth pattern that is seen in Italy. Both nationally and in its most heavily affected provinces, there is exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, making it possible to make predictions for the future, if no further interventions are made in public health policy. In particular, we argue for the urgent introduction of surgical face masks in health care and other settings and the harnessing of the power of smartphone technology on a national scale.