Estimation of COVID-19 outbreak size in Italy based on international case exportations

Author:

Tuite Ashleigh R.ORCID,Ng Victoria,Rees Erin,Fisman David

Abstract

Italy is currently experiencing an epidemic of COVID-19 which emerged in the Lombardy region 1. During the interval between February 25-29, 2020, we identified 46 cases of COVID-19 reported in 21 countries in Europe, Africa, North America, and South America which were either in individuals with recent travel from Italy, or who had presumed infection by a traveler from Italy 2. In six cases, in four of the affected countries (Switzerland, France, Austria, Croatia), land travel was a likely route of introduction, or was documented to have been the route of introduction2.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Reference7 articles.

1. Covid-19: Italy confirms 11 deaths as cases spread from north

2. BNO News . Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline. Available via the Internet at https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/. Last accessed February 29, 2020. 2020.

3. Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings

4. United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) : Tourism Statistics: Italy: Country-specific: Basic indicators (Compendium) 2014 - 2018 (12.2019). Aviailable via the Internet at https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/abs/10.5555/unwtotfb0380010020142018201912. Last accessed February 29, 2020.

5. United Nations, Encyclopedia of the Nations: Average length of stay of visitors - Tourism indicators - UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics - Country Comparison. Available via the Internet at https://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/WorldStats/UNCTAD-average-length-stay-visitors.html. Last accessed February 29, 2020.

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