Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

Published:2020-03-13 Issue: Volume: Page:
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Author:

Jombart Thibaut,van Zandvoort Kevin,Russell Timothy W,Jarvis Christopher I,Gimma Amy,Abbott Sam,Clifford Sam^ORCID,Funk Sebastian^ORCID,Gibbs Hamish,Liu Yang,Pearson Carl A. B.,Bosse Nikos I,Eggo Rosalind M,Kucharski Adam J,Edmunds W John,

Abstract

ABSTRACTWe estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

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