COVID-19: Forecasting short term hospital needs in France

Abstract

1AbstractEurope is now considered as the epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, France being among the most impacted country. In France, there is an increasing concern regarding the capacity of the healthcare system to sustain the outbreak, especially regarding intensive care units (ICU). The aim of this study was to estimate the dynamics of the epidemic in France, and to assess its impact on healthcare resources for each French metropolitan Region. We developed a deterministic, age-structured, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model based on catchment areas of each COVID-19 referral hospitals. We performed one month ahead predictions (up to April 14, 2020) for three different scenarios (R0 = 1.5, R0 = 2.25, R0 = 3), where we estimated the daily number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, the needs in ICU beds per Region and the reaching date of ICU capacity limits. At the national level, the total number of infected cases is expected to range from 22,872 in the best case (R0 = 1.5) to 161,832 in the worst case (R0 = 3), while the total number of deaths would vary from 1,021 to 11,032, respectively. At the regional level, all ICU capacities may be overrun in the worst scenario. Only seven Regions may lack ICU beds in the mild scenario (R0 = 2.25) and only one in the best case. In the three scenarios, Corse may be the first Region to see its ICU capacities overrun. The two other Regions, whose capacity will be overrun shortly after are Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté. Our analysis shows that, even in the best case scenario, the French healthcare system will very soon be overwhelmed. While drastic social distancing measures may temper our results, a massive reorganization leading to an expansion of French ICU capacities seems to be necessary to manage the coming wave of critically affected COVID-19 patients.