Author:
Cowling Benjamin J.,Ali Sheikh Taslim,Ng Tiffany W. Y.,Tsang Tim K.,Li Julian C. M.,Fong Min Whui,Liao Qiuyan,Kwan Mike YW,Lee So Lun,Chiu Susan S.,Wu Joseph T.,Wu Peng,Leung Gabriel M.
Abstract
ABSTRACTBackgroundA range of public health measures have been implemented to delay and reduce local transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and there have been major changes in behaviours of the general public. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioral changes on the incidence of COVID-19 as well as on influenza virus infections which may share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19.MethodsWe reviewed policy interventions and measured changes in population behaviours through two telephone surveys, on January 20-23 and February 11-14. We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt), for COVID-19 and influenza A(H1N1).FindingsCOVID-19 transmissibility has remained at or below 1, indicating successful containment to date. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% confidence interval, CI: 34% to 53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, and a 33% (95% CI: 24% to 43%) reduction in transmissibility based on paediatric hospitalization rates. In the two surveys we estimated that 74.5% and 97.5% of the general adult population wore masks when going out, and 61.3% and 90.2% avoided going to crowded places, respectively.ImplicationsContainment measures, social distancing measures and changes in population behaviour have successfully prevented spread of COVID-19. The social distancing measures and behavioural changes led to a substantial reduction in influenza transmission in early February 2020. However, it may be challenging to avoid fatigue and sustain these measures and population behaviours as COVID-19 continues to spread globally.FundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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