Intensive Care Unit Resource Planning During COVID-19 Emergency at the Regional Level: the Italian case

Abstract

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) has been declared a worldwide emergency and a pandemic disease by the World Health Organisation (WHO). It started in China in December 2019, and it is currently rapidly spreading throughout Italy, which is now the most affected country after China. There is great attention for the diffusion and evolution of the COVID-19 infection which started from the north (particularly in the Lombardia region) and it is now rapidly affecting other Italian regions. We investigate on the impact of patients hospitalisation in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) at a regional and subregional granularity. We propose a model derived from well-known models in epidemic to estimate the needed number of places in intensive care units. The model will help decision-makers to plan resources in the short and medium-term in order to guarantee appropriate treatments to all patients needing it. We analyse Italian data at regional level up to March 15th aiming to: (i) support health and government decision-makers in gathering rapid and efficient decisions on increasing health structures capacities (in terms of ICU slots) and (ii) define a scalable geographic model to plan emergency and future COVID-19 patients management using reallocating them among health structures. Finally, the here proposed model can be useful in countries where COVID-19 is not yet strongly diffused.