Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran

Abstract

Background an objectiveCOVID-19 is an emerging disease and precise data on its epidemiological profile are not available in the world and Iran. this study aimed to model and determine the epidemic trend and prediction of COVID-19 in Iran.MethodsThis study is a secondary data analysis and mathematical modeling. We used the daily reports of definitive COVID-19 patients released by Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Estimated are based on current trends, Sampling of severe cases, hospitalization and tip of iceberg spread disease and asymptomatic, mild and moderate cases could not be calculated in forecasting. Epidemic projection models of logistic growth differential equations, Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy and least squared error (LSE) method were used to predict the number of cases definitive until April 3, 2020 and April28,2020.ResultsR0 in Iran was estimated to be 4.7 that has now fallen to below 2. Given the assumptions in Models, and three different scenarios, the prediction of the patients on April 3, 2020 using three growth models of Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and LSE were estimated at 19,500, 27,000, and 48,830, respectively. The number of deceased COVID-19 patients was also estimated to be 1707 individuals using the logistic growth model, 3165 ones by Von’s model and 6300 ones according to the LSE method. Assuming continuation of the predicted trend until April 3, 2020, The prediction of the number of patients based on the Gompertz’s and number of dead based on the Von’s model until control the epidemic are estimated about 31000 and 5000 near April 28, 2020 respectively.ConclusionThe process of controlling the epidemic is tangible. The most ideal scenario is the Von’s model, but it is hard to fulfill and unattainable. If enforcement and public behavior interventions continue with current trends, the control and reduction of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran will be flat from April 28, until July, 2020 by Gompertz’s model and new cases are expected to decline from the following Iranian new year.