Predicting future drinking among young adults: using ensemble machine-learning to combine MRI with psychometrics and behaviour

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundWhile most research into predictors of problematic alcohol use has focused on adolescence, young adults are also at elevated risk, and differ from adolescents and adults in terms of exposure to alcohol and neurodevelopment. Here we examined predictors of alcohol use among young adults at a 1-year follow-up using a broad predictive modelling approach.MethodsData in four modalities were included from 128 men aged between 18 and 25 years; functional MRI regions-of-interest from 1) a beer-incentive delay task, and 2) a social alcohol cue-exposure task, 3) grey matter data, and 4) non-neuroimaging data (i.e. psychometric and behavioural). These modalities were combined into an ensemble model to predict follow-up Alcohol Use Disorder Identification (AUDIT) scores, and were tested separately for their contribution. To reveal specificity for the prediction of future AUDIT scores, the same analyses were carried out for current AUDIT score.ResultsThe ensemble resulted in a more accurate estimation of follow-up AUDIT score than any single modality. Only removal of the social alcohol cue-exposure task and of the non-neuroimaging data significantly worsened predictions. Reporting to need a drink in the morning to start the day was the strongest unique predictor of future drinking along with anterior cingulate cortex and cerebellar activity.ConclusionsAlcohol-related task fMRI activity is a valuable predictor for future drinking among young adults alongside non-neuroimaging variables. Multi-modal prediction models best predict future drinking among young adults and may play an important part in the move towards individualized treatment and prevention efforts.