Estimates of the eligible population for Australia’s targeted National Lung Cancer Screening Program, 2025-2030

Abstract

AbstractAustralia’s National Lung Cancer Screening Program will commence in July 2025, targeted at individuals aged 50-70 years with a 30 pack-year smoking history, who either currently smoke or have quit within the last 10 years. We forecasted the number of screening-eligible individuals over the first 5 years of the program using data from the 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, and the 2022 Australian Bureau of Statistics population projections. Multiple imputation integrated with predictive modelling of future or unmeasured smoking characteristics was used to address missing data and simultaneously, to project individuals’ smoking histories to 2030. In 2025, 930,500 (95% prediction interval 852,200-1,019,000) individuals were estimated to be eligible, with the number meeting the criteria declining slightly over the years 2025-2030 in all Australian jurisdictions. Overall, 26-30% of those eligible will have quit smoking, and 70-74% will currently smoke. These estimates can be used in resource planning and as an indicative denominator to track participation rates for the program over time.