An Imputation-Based Approach for Augmenting Sparse Epidemiological Signals

Abstract

AbstractNear-term disease forecasting and scenario projection efforts rely on the availability of data to train and evaluate model performance. In most cases, more extensive epidemiological time series data can lead to better modeling results and improved public health insights. Here we describe a procedure to augment an epidemiological time series. We used reported flu hospitalization data from FluSurv-NET and the National Healthcare Safety Network to estimate a complete time series of flu hospitalization counts dating back to 2009. The augmentation process includes concatenation, interpolation, extrapolation, and imputation steps, each designed to address specific data gaps. We demonstrate the forecasting performance gain when the extended time series is used to train flu hospitalization models at the state and national level.