Did “long COVID” increase road deaths in the U.S.?

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveTo examine data on COVID-19 disease associated with a 10 percent increase in U.S. road deaths from 2020 to 2021 that raises the question of the potential effect of pandemic stress and neurological damage from COVID-19 disease.MethodsPoisson regression was used to estimate the association of recent COVID-19 cases, accumulated cases, maximum temperatures, truck registrations, and gasoline prices with road deaths monthly among U.S. states in 2021. Using the regression coefficients, changes in each risk factor from 2020 to 2021 were used to calculate expected deaths in 2021 if each factor had remained the same as in 2020.ResultsCorrected for the other risk factors, road deaths were associated with accumulated COVID-19 cases but not cases in the previous month. More than 20,700 road deaths were associated with the changes in accumulated COVID-19 cases but were substantially offset by about 19,100 less-than-expected deaths associated with increased gasoline prices.ConclusionsWhile more research is needed, the data are sufficient to warn people with “long COVID” to minimize road use.What is already known about this topicPrevious short-term fluctuations in road deaths are related to changes in temperature, fuel prices, and truck registrations.What this study addsCorrected for other risk factors, the monthly changes in road deaths from 2020 to 2021 in U.S. states were associated with cumulative COVID-19 cases.How this study might affect research, practice, or policyStudies are needed to distinguish the potential relative effects of neurological damage as well as the stress of coping with the pandemic on driving, walking, and bicyclist behavior. Warning people with “long covid” about road risk is warranted.