Possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context

Abstract

AbstractThe determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main challenges that any country has to face in an effective battle against. The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is, nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In this work, we go deep in this subject by presenting an innovative compartmental model, that explicitly introduces the number of active cases, and employing it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated the impact of starting, inattention, and end of restrictive social policies on the time evolution of the pandemics via time-in-run corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The scenarios generated by the model can help authorities to determine an adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal activities.