Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Abstract

AbstractCOVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the US: over 180,000 by the end of August 2020, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths – one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our most likely estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.41 years. This decline results in a life expectancy of 77.2 years, a value last observed in 2003. We also project a 1.08-year reduction in life expectancy at age 65. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.69 and 3.66 years, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.84-year reduction for whites. These projections imply an increase of over 50% in the Black-white life expectancy gap, from 3.6 to 5.5 years, thereby eliminating twenty years of progress made in reducing this differential. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than three-year survival advantage almost eliminated.