United States Air Force Academy Class of 1967 Survival

Abstract

ABSTRACTIntroductionAir Force Academy cadets must meet medical standards to matriculate and be commissioned at graduation. However, during military service many graduates are exposed to significant occupational hazards. We examined the survival experience of the Air Force Academy class of 1967 (AFA67). Projections are provided for life expectancy and remaining quality adjusted life years, the number that will die in the next five years, and the number who will reach their 100thbirthday.MethodsThe dates of death as of September 1, 2022, were obtained from the Class of 1967 Memorial Ceremony booklet dated September 23, 2022. Birthdates were obtained for 94% of the known decedents. Simulated birthdates for the remainder were generated using a skew normal distribution. Likely death underreporting was accounted for. We used the National Health Interview Survey to derive US estimates to compare to AFA67. Parametric survival models using the Weibull distribution were used to calculate average survival time at age 78 (the median current age of AFA67), and standard life table techniques were used to estimate the number dying in the next five years and the number who will live to be centenarians.ResultsAs of September 1, 2022, there were 130 known decedents, a 25.2% death incidence. After nearly fivefold excess mortality during the war in Southeast Asia, the class’s experience closely parallels that of contemporaneous college graduates. Adding 12 deaths to compensate for possible unreported deaths does not significantly alter the results. The point estimates for average life expectancy at 78, the number that will die in the next five years, and the number living to age 100 are 13.8 years, 74, and 76 respectively.ConclusionThe AFA67 survival experience closely matches that of contemporaneous non-Hispanic white male college graduates in the US who were in excellent or very good health in their early twenties. There are numerous desirable opportunities to extend this research.