Identification of COVID-19 Vaccine-Hesitancy Predictors in the United States

Abstract

AbstractVaccine hesitancy is complex, multi-causative phenomenon that undermines public health efforts to contain the spread of infectious diseases. Improving our understanding of the drivers of vaccine hesitancy might improve our capacity to address it. We used the results of the May 2021 ASPE’s survey on COVID-19 vaccine-hesitancy which estimated the proportion of adults that felt hesitant of unsure towards taking the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available at the county-level. We developed a prediction model to identify the most important predictors of vaccine-hesitancy. The potential predictors included demographic characteristics, the CDC’s social vulnerability index, and the Republican Party’s voting share in the 2020 presidential election as a proxy of political affiliation, both at the county-level. The most important drivers of hesitancy included low educational attainment, proportion of Black/African American population, and political affiliation. These results deepen our understanding of the phenomenon and could help design more targeted interventions to reduce hesitancy in specific sub-groups of the population.